US yield curve today (2s/10s spread)

The spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields. An inverted curve (spread < 0) has preceded every US recession since 1955.

Source: US Treasury constant maturity via FRED DGS10 and DGS2. Mirrored under CC BY 4.0 in CalcFi Open Data.

For full interactive analysis with NBER recession bars and Fed Funds overlay, see the long-form Observable notebook or the Hugging Face Space.